 Connections show us that events are related. Political leaders constantly make decisions that have unforseen and far reaching consequences down the line. Understanding these connections helps make sense out of the political and economic world and should make politicians think more closely about the consequences of their actions. One has to wonder whether the King of France would have funded the American Revolution had he'd known it would eventually cost him his head?
Connections are a tool: We can use connections to help undertand where we are and how we got here. All political and economic events are related in some way. By thinking about these relationships we are better able to make sense of the world.
Connections have limitations: Connections tell us how we got here. They do not tell us where we are going. It is very difficult to project future events based on present actions. Predicting connections is a far more difficult and inaccurate process. Nonetheless, by understanding that there will be causes and effects should help us to think more closely about what present-day actions we want to support and whether we are prepared to deal with the consequences of those actions.
Some connections are very complex taking a very winding road to go from point A to point B. In many cases connections can be intertwined with more than one event stemming from a particular decision. Some are straightforward yet still have longlasting impacts (Temperance movement succeeds with a Constitutional Amendment banning alcohol -> Underground organizations gain influence and money supplying illegal alcohol -> Alcohol Ban lifted, organizations branch out to other forms of organized crime -> John Gotti dies in prison, the former boss of the largest of these criminal organizations. While these straightforward connections explain a lot about current affairs, it is the complex connections that make us think about the world and it is the complex connections we explore here.
In exploring connections it is necessary to understand the difference between necessary and sufficient conditions. In a necessary condition an act can not occur with out the presence of a necessary component. For example: A bird cannot fly without wings. Wings are a necessary component of bird flight but do not guarantee that a bird with wings can automatically fly (witness and ostrich or turkey). An act is a sufficient condition if the consequence automatically occurs if the original act is taken. For sufficient conditions the consequence is predetermined. For example: Jumping off a 1000 ft. cliff is sufficient enough to kill you. Once you jump off the cliff you are guaranteeing that you will be found dead at the bottom. Often times with connections there are intervening variable that can change the course of history and these need to be explored as well (a series of dense bushes slows the jumper's descent allowing him to hit with less than deadly impact). |
